Figure 1. Aggregate number of Covid-19 cases in NCR (red), numbering 7,736 as of May 25, 2020. Also shown are Covid-19 cases in NCR for validation (blue), currently at 1,498.

A group of researchers from the University of the Philippines publishes its eight forecast report on May 26, 2020, and recommends that the national government continue the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in NCR and consider the same in other high-risk areas.

The forecast report states that reproduction number R of NCR, which is oscillating at around 1.0 rather than showing a discernible decrease is a sign that it might be premature to relax the MECQ to GCQ. Given that the data received from DOH appears to have a lag, NCR remains a high-risk area.


In this Forecast Report No. 7, UP experts cite data analyses to show that the past enhanced community quarantine worked to reduce transmission and deaths due to COVID-19. However, in certain areas of the country, the risk level of the pandemic is still high. Read about the recommendations of UP scientists regarding the continuation of quarantine measures in some areas and the loosening of restrictions in others.