Figure 1. Aggregate number of Covid-19 cases in NCR (red), numbering 7,736 as of May 25, 2020. Also shown are Covid-19 cases in NCR for validation (blue), currently at 1,498.

A group of researchers from the University of the Philippines publishes its eight forecast report on May 26, 2020, and recommends that the national government continue the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in NCR and consider the same in other high-risk areas.

The forecast report states that reproduction number R of NCR, which is oscillating at around 1.0 rather than showing a discernible decrease is a sign that it might be premature to relax the MECQ to GCQ. Given that the data received from DOH appears to have a lag, NCR remains a high-risk area.

COVID-19 FORECASTS IN THE PHILIPPINES: Sub-National Models for NCR and other Selected Areas

The next several weeks are full of uncertainty as we attempt to restore normalcy in our lives. Based on data obtained from the Department of Health (DOH), this report aims to provide insights on the implications of the decisions that we are going to make and the measures that could prove useful in our collective effort to overcome the challenges brought by the pandemic.