The surge in COVID-19 cases in the country point to a very significant community transmission in the country, especially in the NCR and Cebu City. Because of this, the UP-OCTA research team cautions against prematurely downgrading the quarantine status in high-risk areas, as well as increase testing, boost aggressive contact tracing, improve treatment and establish more quarantine and other isolation facilities.
Without continued vigilance on the part of the government, private sector, civil society, and citizens, this significant community transmission in the country may lead to the pandemic getting out of control. If both national and local governments continue to fail to provide a prompt and adequate response, all our societal and financial sacrifices will be wasted, and we will likely experience another wave. This may lead to yet another round of more stringent restrictions, which could be harder for the government to implement and will likely undermine our economic recovery.
In their 10th forecast report, UP scientists dive into recent data on COVID-19 cases in the country, especially in the NCR and Cebu province, and show that while the pandemic is still spreading, the situation is still manageable. Given the clearer picture of the pandemic, they offer strategic options for the national government going forward.
In this Forecast Report No. 7, UP experts cite data analyses to show that the past enhanced community quarantine worked to reduce transmission and deaths due to COVID-19. However, in certain areas of the country, the risk level of the pandemic is still high. Read about the recommendations of UP scientists regarding the continuation of quarantine measures in some areas and the loosening of restrictions in others.
Using mathematical modeling, UP scientists have made forecasts of the current trends of COVID-19 infections, and based on these forecasts, recommend the extension of ECQ beyond May 15 for NCR and other areas of the country, among others.
A team of UP faculty publishes its COVID-19 forecasts and analysis for the Philippines with suggestions on parameters for localized modified ECQ.